A Lot Of The Time Nothing Happens

The Signal Is The Truth. The Noise Is What Distracts Us From The Truth.

All I Know Is That I Have Way More Stuff That I Want To Write About Than I Possibly Have Time To.

Distinguishing The Signal From The Noise Requires Both Scientific Knowledge And Self-knowledge.

Expert Estimates Of Probability Are Often Off By Factors Of Hundreds Or Thousands. [...] I Used To Be Annoyed When The Margin Of Error Was High In A Forecasting Model That I Might Put Together. Now I View It As Perhaps The Single Most Important Piece Of Information That A Forecaster Provides. When We Publish A Forecast On Fivethirtyeight, I Go To Great Lengths To Document The Uncertainty Attached To It, Even If The Uncertainty Is Sufficiently Large That The Forecast Won't Make For Punchy Headlines.

The Quest For Certainty In Forecasting Outcomes Can Be The Enemy Of Progress.