The Quest For Certainty In Forecasting Outcomes

Data-driven Predictions Can Succeed-and They Can Fail. It Is When We Deny Our Role In The Process That The Odds Of Failure Rise. Before We Demand More Of Our Data, We Need To Demand More Of Ourselves.

The Signal Is The Truth. The Noise Is What Distracts Us From The Truth.

I Guess I Don't Like The People In Politics Very Much, To Be Blunt.

Precise Forecasts Masquerade As Accurate Ones.

The Protestant Reformation Had A Lot To Do With The Printing Press, Where Martin Luther's Theses Were Reproduced About 250,000 Times. And So You Had Widespread Dissemination Of Ideas That Hadn't Circulated In The Mainstream Before.