All I Know Is That I Have

Precise Forecasts Masquerade As Accurate Ones.

People Don't Have A Good Intuitive Sense Of How To Weigh New Information In Light Of What They Already Know. They Tend To Overrate It.

The Problem Is That When Polls Are Wrong, They Tend To Be Wrong In The Same Direction. If They Miss In New Hampshire, For Instance, They All Miss On The Same Mistake.

Basically, Books Were A Luxury Item Before The Printing Press.

The Key To Making A Good Forecast Is Not In Limiting Yourself To Quantitative Information.