I'm Not Trying To Do Anything Too

Every Four Years In The Presidential Election, Some New Precedent Is Broken.

When A Possibility Is Unfamiliar To Us, We Do Not Even Think About It.

Expert Estimates Of Probability Are Often Off By Factors Of Hundreds Or Thousands. [...] I Used To Be Annoyed When The Margin Of Error Was High In A Forecasting Model That I Might Put Together. Now I View It As Perhaps The Single Most Important Piece Of Information That A Forecaster Provides. When We Publish A Forecast On Fivethirtyeight, I Go To Great Lengths To Document The Uncertainty Attached To It, Even If The Uncertainty Is Sufficiently Large That The Forecast Won't Make For Punchy Headlines.

To The Extent That You Can Find Ways Where You're Making Predictions, There's No Substitute For Testing Yourself On Real-world Situations That You Don't Know The Answer To In Advance.

Well The Way We Perceive Accuracy And What Accuracy Is Statistically Are Really Two Different Things.