When A Possibility Is Unfamiliar To Us,

To The Extent That You Can Find Ways Where You're Making Predictions, There's No Substitute For Testing Yourself On Real-world Situations That You Don't Know The Answer To In Advance.

You Get Steely Nerves Playing Poker.

You Don't Want To Influence The Same System You Are Trying To Forecast.

You Don't Want To Treat Any One Person As Oracular.

If The State Polls Are Right, Then Mr. Obama Will Win The Electoral College. If You Can't Acknowledge That After A Day When Mr. Obama Leads 19 Out Of 20 Swing-state Polls, Then You Should Abandon The Pretense That Your Goal Is To Inform Rather Than Entertain The Public.