You Should Expect Little Or Nothing From

The 'instagram Generation' Now Experiences The Present As An Anticipated Memory

Groups Tend To Be More Extreme Than Individuals.

Some Memories Come With A Very Compelling Sense Of Truth About Them. And That Happens To Be The Case Even With Memories That Are Not True.

We Were Required To Predict A Soldier's Performance In Officer Training And In Combat, But We Did So By Evaluating His Behavior Over One Hour In An Artificial Situation. This Was A Perfect Instance Of A General Rule That I Call Wysiati, "what You See Is All There Is." We Had Made Up A Story From The Little We Knew But Had No Way To Allow For What We Did Not Know About The Individual's Future, Which Was Almost Everything That Would Actually Matter. When You Know As Little As We Did, You Should Not Make Extreme Predictions Like "he Will Be A Star."

The Evidence Is Unequivocal, There's A Great Deal More Luck Than Skill In People Getting Very Rich.