You Know, The Standard State For People

Groups Tend To Be More Extreme Than Individuals.

People Who Face A Difficult Question Often Answer An Easier One Instead, Without Realizing It.

Managers Think Of Themselves As Captains Of A Ship On A Stormy Sea. Risk For Them Is Danger, But They Are Fighting It, Very Controlled.

To Know Whether You Can Trust A Particular Intuitive Judgment, There Are Two Questions You Should Ask: Is The Environment In Which The Judgment Is Made Sufficiently Regular To Enable Predictions From The Available Evidence? The Answer Is Yes For Diagnosticians, No For Stock Pickers. Do The Professionals Have An Adequate Opportunity To Learn The Cues And The Regularities? The Answer Here Depends On The Professionals' Experience And On The Quality And Speed With Which They Discover Their Mistakes.

We Are Prone To Overestimate How Much We Understand About The World And To Underestimate The Role Of Chance In Events.