The Confidence People Have In Their Beliefs

We Have No Reason To Expect The Quality Of Intuition To Improve With The Importance Of The Problem. Perhaps The Contrary: High-stake Problems Are Likely To Involve Powerful Emotions And Strong Impulses To Action.

The Planning Fallacy Is That You Make A Plan, Which Is Usually A Best-case Scenario. Then You Assume That The Outcome Will Follow Your Plan, Even When You Should Know Better.

I Would Be Wary Of Experts' Intuition, Except When They Deal With Something That They Have Dealt With A Lot In The Past.

If People Can Construct A Simple And Coherent Story, They Will Feel Confident Regardless Of How Well Grounded It Is In Reality.

When You Are Under Time Pressure For A Decision, You Need To Follow Intuition.