The Average Investor's Return Is Significantly Lower

Political Columnists And Sports Pundits Are Rewarded For Being Overconfident.

Mood Evidently Affects The Operation Of System 1: When We Are Uncomfortable And Unhappy, We Lose Touch With Our Intuition. These Findings Add To The Growing Evidence That Good Mood, Intuition, Creativity, Gullibility, And Increased Reliance On System 1 Form A Cluster. At The Other Pole, Sadness, Vigilance, Suspicion, An Analytic Approach, And Increased Effort Also Go Together. A Happy Mood Loosens The Control Of System 2 Over Performance: When In A Good Mood, People Become More Intuitive And More Creative But Also Less Vigilant And More Prone To Logical Errors.

It's Very Easy For Trusted Companies To Mislead Naive Customers, And Life Insurance Companies Are Trusted.

Overconfidence Is A Powerful Source Of Illusions, Primarily Determined By The Quality And Coherence Of The Story That You Can Construct, Not By Its Validity.

The Amount Of Success It Takes For Leaders To Become Overconfident Isn't Terribly Large.