It Doesn't Take Many Observations To Think

The Illusion Of Skill Is Not Only An Individual Aberration; It Is Deeply Ingrained In The Culture Of The [investment Management] Industry.

People Tend To Assess The Relative Importance Of Issues By The Ease With Which They Are Retrieved From Memory—and This Is Largely Determined By The Extent Of Coverage In The Media. Frequently Mentioned Topics Populate The Mind Even As Others Slip Away From Awareness. In Turn, What The Media Choose To Report Corresponds To Their View Of What Is Currently On The Public’s Mind. It Is No Accident That Authoritarian Regimes Exert Substantial Pressure On Independent Media. Because Public Interest Is Most Easily Aroused By Dramatic Events And By Celebrities, Media Feeding Frenzies Are Common

We Are Far Too Willing To Reject The Belief That Much Of What We See In Life Is Random.

A Large Portion Of The Weekend Effects Is Explained By Differences In The Amount Of Time Spent With Friends Or Family Between Weekends And Weekdays.

However, Optimism Is Highly Valued, Socially And In The Market; People And Firms Reward The Providers Of Dangerously Misleading Information More Than They Reward Truth Tellers. One Of The Lessons Of The Financial Crisis That Led To The Great Recession Is That There Are Periods In Which Competition, Among Experts And Among Organizations, Creates Powerful Forces That Favor A Collective Blindness To Risk And Uncertainty.